The war drums against Iran are beating louder and louder. In the CBS South Carolina GOP debate, which was dubbed a foreign policy debate, almost every candidate came out and seemed to support going to war against Iran to prevent them from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Is war with Iran inevitable?
As I watched the CBS South Carolina GOP debate this week I couldn't help but get the feeling that everyone was beating the war drums against Iran. Sure I had heard it before, but the beats were much louder now. From my perspective, it appears that if a Republican is elected as President in 2012, that we will be at war with Iran in one way, shape, or form before their first term ends.
That brings up the question, well what if President Obama is reelected? That is harder to answer, but with the withdraw of troops from Iraq and the draw-down in Afghanistan, we may very well be headed for war in Iran even if Obama is reelected. Even though Obama is the candidate that is the most anti-war (with the exception of Ron Paul who will not win), there are two major factors that make me believe we are being pushed towards war with Iran.
First, Israel is stepping up its public and non-public actions against Iran. The last couple of weeks has been marked by increasing talk from Israel about a preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Already, European leaders are warning that if Israel does indeed strike Iran that it will lead to an "uncontrollable spiral". There have been many reports both behind the scenes and out in public, that Republicans will support Israel 100% should they choose to attack Iran. Behind the scenes, it is believed that Israel was responsible for killing a top military general in Iran when a missile facility there exploded.
Second, the United States has and always will back up Israel. There is a lot of history involved to explain why this is the case, but that is the fact. This includes going to bat for Israel, even if they are the aggressors and start a war with Iran without being able to handle the consequences themselves. That in my view is why it seems inevitable that we will go to war with Iran. Not so much for our own sake, but for Israel's.
The groundwork was set last month with the revelation that Iran plotted to take out the Saudi ambassador on United States soil. That plot, smelled very fishy to me and it seems like the American people didn't really buy the whole story. If they had, there would have been an outcry of support to do something about Iran. That never happened. Since that didn't work, now the case needs to be made that they are a threat to the United States by some other means. That case is now being laid out by suggesting that if Iran is attacked that they could disrupt oil supplies to the entire world and drive prices upwards.
That ploy seems more likely to work. The fact is that the American people do not support another war in the Middle East. We are done there. We are tired of war. We are tired of spending money overseas when we are hurting here. That is why suggesting oil prices will spike will work to gain support for the war. One thing that hits everyone extremely hard is a spike in oil prices. If Iran were to disrupt oil supplies and prices skyrocket as a result, Americans might support a war on Iran to bring oil prices back down. But here's the kicker. Even if Iran doesn't disrupt oil supplies, prices will skyrocket.
One thing we learned with the Arab Spring, is that instability in the region drives prices upwards. An Israeli strike on Iran would increase instability in the region exponentially. What does that mean? It means that regardless if Iran does disrupt oil supplies, they can still be blamed for the increase in prices because of the instability caused by the strike, should Israel decide to do so. That will draw us in. There is nothing we can do about it.
The war drums are beating. Iran is the next target. Unfortunately, I do not think there is anyway around it. Could this be the catalyst that brings us to the next global war?
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